Analyzing India’s Green Hydrogen Mission: Can it Compete Globally?

Analyzing India’s Green Hydrogen Mission: Can it Compete Globally?

India has launched the National Green Hydrogen Mission (NGHM) with an outlay of ₹19,744 crore (~$2.4 billion) to position itself as a global leader in green hydrogen production and export. Globally, however it seems that the US, EU, Gulf Nations & China are more aggressive when compared with India. The NGHM current outlay is likely to be short by nearly 75% (by 2030) if India wishes to compete globally and shall struggle to match China/Gulf in terms of exports. Although China has a funding allocation of US$ 6.7 Billion but their hydrogen production cost is far more competitive when compared with India. While evaluating India’s NGHM we have four key metric which shall present a clear picture of India’s standing when compared to the US, EU, Gulf & China. These metrics are listed as below:

• Global Green Hydrogen Investments Commitments
• Green Hydrogen Production Cost Breakdown (2030 Projections)
• Policy Support & Demand Drivers
• Key Challenges for India – For transforming into a global Hydrogen hub

1. Global Green Hydrogen Investments Commitment

On the other hand, wind energy, with a 3.4 GW capacity addition, demonstrated a slightly higher average annual power output of about 17%. This translates into a realized capacity of around 0.544 GW (or 544 MW) for the same period. Further Eninrac analysis, as presented in Exhibit 01, reveals that despite notable progress in solar capacity installation, its share in India’s overall installed capacity has grown modestly, from 15% in 2022 to 20.9% in 2024. Similarly, its contribution to the nation’s total power generation has seen a tepid increase, from 5.9% in 2022 to 7.4% in 2024.

Source: eninrac consulting, US DoE, EU Commission, IEA, NEOM, ADNOC

Source: eninrac consulting, US DoE, EU Commission, IEA, NEOM, ADNOC

If we compare India’s funding with respect to the other countries/region it is almost ~5X lower than US and ~ 20X lower than Gulf nations combined. When we see China & Gulf dominate due to state-backed capital and ultra-cheap renewables

2. Green Hydrogen Production Cost Breakdown (2030 Projections)

India’s renewable energy costs are among the most competitive globally, positioning the country well for green hydrogen production. However, a key bottleneck remains: the high cost of electrolyzers, where India significantly lags China. This gap limits India’s ability to fully capitalize on its renewable advantage and scale up green hydrogen production at globally competitive prices. In contrast, countries like Saudi Arabia and China are rapidly advancing in the green hydrogen space, largely due to strategic advantages. Both are leveraging state-backed capital and access to ultra-low-cost solar power—often close to zero marginal cost, which is expected to help them achieve hydrogen production costs of less than $1 per kilogram soon. This cost benchmark, considered a tipping point for green hydrogen competitiveness, gives these nations a dominant position in the global hydrogen economy. If India aims to compete, strategic interventions will be essential ranging from scaling domestic electrolyzer manufacturing and investing in R&D to establishing favorable policy frameworks and securing long-term funding support.

3. Policy Support & Demand Drivers

Source: eninrac consulting

India is projected to witness strong domestic demand for green hydrogen, estimated at around 5 million metric tons (MMT) by 2030. This demand presents a significant opportunity to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors such as steel, refining, and fertilizers. However, while India is gearing up for large-scale production, its export infrastructure remains underdeveloped compared to Gulf nations and China, both of which are rapidly building export-focused hydrogen value chains. Moreover, global competition is intensifying due to aggressive subsidy regimes. The U.S. and the EU are offering generous incentives—ranging from $3 to $4 per kg of green hydrogen—which dramatically lower production costs and make exports viable. In contrast, India’s current support mechanisms are modest, offering only around $0.3 to $0.5 per kg.

This disparity puts Indian producers at a disadvantage in the global market and could hinder India’s ambitions to become a major hydrogen export hub. To remain competitive, India must accelerate infrastructure development, enhance financial support, and facilitate long-term offtake arrangements.

Is India's financial commitment dwarfed by developed economies? Does India lack subsidy depth?

Despite its strong ambition, India’s green hydrogen funding remains modest compared to global peers. Under the National Green Hydrogen Mission, India has committed ₹19,744 crore (~$2.4B)—which is 5–20 times lower than what the US, EU, and Gulf nations have pledged. For comparison:

• USA: $13.5B via Inflation Reduction Act subsidies ($3/kg H₂ tax credit)
• EU: $5.2B through Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD) and REPowerEU
• Gulf (Saudi/UAE): Over $50B in mega-projects (NEOM, ADNOC, Masdar)
• China: $6.7B in state-led electrolyzer investments

India also lags in subsidy depth. While the US and EU offer ~$3–4/kg incentives, India’s support stands at just $0.3–0.5/kg far too low to attract global capital or match production costs abroad. As a result, India’s hydrogen cost ($1.5–2.0/kg) is nearly double that of Saudi Arabia or China (<$1/kg), with heavy dependence on imported electrolyzers inflating costs further.

Export competitiveness is also at risk. Gulf nations are signing offtake deals with EU and Asia, while Australia and Oman are moving ahead with ammonia export infrastructure leaving India behind due to underdeveloped ports and lack of binding agreements. Investor confidence reflects this gap - Only 5% of Indian green H₂ projects have secured financing, compared to over 60% in the US and EU.

Can India Catch Up?

Yes, it certainly can but bolder actions would be required by 2030. The key actions are enlisted as below:

• Scale funding to $10 Billion by 2030
• Mandate localized electrolyzer manufacturing
• Accelerate port infrastructure development
• Secure global offtake deals (e.g., Germany’s H2Global auctions)

Without urgent reforms, India risks remaining a marginal player in the global hydrogen economy. 

Indian companies current plans and their status in Hydrogen Sector

Source: eninrac consulting

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